Castor Oil Market Report, August 2014

Castor Oil Market Report

For more than 185 years, Messrs. Alberdingk Boley has been processing linseed oil and castor oil to various products for cosmetics, technical and pharmaceutical purposes. For your guidance, please find below a market report from our Indian expert about the latest situation of the world castor oil market. This report is also available as PDF download here.

The Indian Castor Seed Balance Sheet is expected to be as follows:

Opening stock of Castor as 1st January 2014:           450.000 MT SEEDS

Approx. Crop of 2013:                                             1.130.000 MT SEEDS

Total Availability:                                                  1.580.000 MT SEEDS

Total Availability of OIL (@46% RECOVERY):       726.800 MT OIL   (A)

 

CONSUMPTION (Jan to July 2014):

Oil Exports                                                                   271.664 MT OIL

Derivatives Exports                                                        70.000 MT OIL

Local consumption                                                          28.000 MT OIL

Total Consumed (Jan-July 2014):                            369.664 MT OIL  (B)

 

ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION (AUG TO DEC ’14):

Less: Oil Exports (@ 32000 tons per month):             160.000 MT OIL

Less: Derivatives (@10000 tons per month):                50.000 MT OIL

Less: Local Consumption (4000 per month):                 20.000 MT OIL

Total Estimated consumption (Aug-Dec ’14):          230.000 MT OIL  (C)

 

A – (B+C) 726.800 – (369.664+230.000) = 127.136 MT oil will remain as carryover as on 1ST JAN 2015. That is equal to 280.000 MT OF SEEDS.

Sowing is picking up all over Gujarat as skies have now cleared up and there is good sunshine after 20 days of heavy rain. The sowing in Gujarat will be better than last year. This means, the overall castor crop yield could be higher, as Gujarat has the highest yield amongst the three castor growing states. Actually, there is a shortage in the market for ‘castor sowing seeds’. This further indicates that sowing should be good.

Cotton and Castor are gaining acreage, while groundnut and pulses have reduced acreage this year. We expect an increase in 2014 for the new crop by about 15-20% = about 1.30 - 1.35 Million Tons. Thus, with a carryover of 0.28 MT, the total availability for 2015 should be somewhere around 1.60 Million Tons.

Chinese shipments this year will be lower by at least 40.000 to 50.000 tons. From Jan to July 2014, there is already a lower shipment of 30.000 tons to China (compared to Jan-July 2013).

There is no price parity for Sebacic acid. A higher inventory from last year’s purchases, stricter pollution norms and tighter bank credit, has led to some factories closing down.

Even though, crop estimations and prices remain stable, there are always factors of uncertainty which may affect the situation. According to our Indian representative, one of the major influencing factors with regards to the castor oil price development, is the Chinese purchase behavior, as well as currency fluctuation (Rupee – US-Dollar).

Subject to the conditions mentioned above, we currently do not see any scenario for a significant drop in castor pricing before arrival of the new crop (beginning of 2015).

Please feel free to contact us for any further market information and price requests.

With best regards from Germany,

ALBERDINGK BOLEY GmbH

Your Sales Team Vegetable Oils
Bärbel Davids     Sandra Köstermann    Oliver Hasler                     

Phone 49 2151 528-0, Fax: + 49 2151 573643, E-mail: oils@alberdingk-boley.de

Disclaimer:

The information and advice given here-above is offered in good faith and represents our best knowledge of the market and its prices at this moment. A legally binding assurance about prices and or market trends cannot be assumed out of this report. We reserve the right to revise our forecast without prior notification. We will endeavour to keep our clients well informed when changes occur, with the clear understanding that our information is offered subject to currency and market fluctuation.

This market report is a service of Messrs. Alberdingk Boley GmbH, Düsseldorfer Str. 53, 47829 Krefeld, Germany
From: Martina Bielen, Corporate Communication, Email:mbi@al-bo.com
www.alberdingk-boley.de